Welcome to the latest issue of Tony’s View.
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- We are living through a big shock and the risk is that people build expectations for big changes which simply won’t happen. I run through a few including predictions that we will be led out of this by manufacturing or farming.
- In the housing section I attempt to get people to focus on the long-term fundamentals rather than short-term developments – one of which will be stories within a few weeks of some big house price declines reflecting outliers rather than overall market movements. Be careful. There are plenty of well-capitalised people who would love you to panic and deliver them a bargain.
- On Monday morning I will release my final Covid-19 Supplement paper and revert back to just the weekly Tony’s View each Thursday. In the final Supplement No. 8 issue, I will provide a list of things which are going to be better as a result of this shock. I have my list, but maybe you have yours as well. So, if you feel inclined, email me back your list of things you personally think will be better as a result of this crisis, or things you are looking forward to once we’re back to normal, or simply things you are thankful for. I will analyse responses over the weekend and incorporate a summary in Monday morning’s release.
- And finally, many thanks again to the recession veterans who responded to my request for insights into what the recession newbies should do to help them get through this crisis. Feedback to the paper was the second best I’ve received for anything I’ve ever written since hitting the workforce in 1985. The best was to the 2016 paper suggesting what young people could do if they wanted to get their foot on the property ladder. It fairly much amounted to doing what they are doing now during lockdown.
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