The latest monthly property value index shows that nationwide residential values increased further in May. The annual change in values remains 7.1%, with an increase of 1.7% over the past three months. Values are now up 5.0% over the previous market peak of late 2007
Jonno Ingerson, QV.co.nz Research Director said “Nationwide values continue to climb strongly, but that isn't the case right across the country. Values are increasing fastest in Auckland and to a lesser extent Christchurch, with both cities driven by a lack of supply.”
“The rest of the main centres are also increasing in value, although at a much more modest rate, reflecting a general increase in consumer confidence.
Values are more variable in the rural towns in response to local economic conditions” said Ingerson
“Given that the current increase in values in Auckland and Christchurch is largely driven by strong demand and short supply, values are likely to continue to increase in the coming months” said Ingerson.
Values in the Wellington area are showing some growth, albeit steady. Values are now 2.7% above this time last year with a 0.8% growth in the last 3 months. Within Wellington, Wellington City, Hutt City and Upper Hutt all have around a 2% increase on last year, however, Porirua has seen the biggest increase, now up 4.2%.
QV Valuer Pieter Geill said “There is increased demand from buyers in the Hutt Valley for properties up to $400,000, as well as buyers looking around the $400,000-$600,000 mark. Property investors are also still active, with many purchasing low value homes before making a modest profit after making only small to medium sized renovations. They are also interested in blocks of flats.”
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I guess I’d be asking myself the same question as the two real estate agents sitting at the table near mine in Ruby Café in Plimmerton on Tuesday afternoon – when are interest rates likely to start going up? Our current best guess is next year but uncertainty surrounding interest rate predictions is huge and quite rightly too as no-one has got their interest rate predictions right for four or so years now.
But for modelling purposes I would assume the official cash rate starts rising in the middle of 2014 and is 3% higher come the middle of 2015. That would broadly mean floating and short-term fixed interest rates rising about 3% as well.
Longer term rates will also rise but their movements will be more and more influenced by what happens with rates overseas – principally in the United States. In that regard it is hard to over-estimate the massive uncertainty regarding what US rates do in the next few years.
Thanks to Tony Alexander of the BNZ for his Weekly Comment 06/06/13
Maybe I would be taking a wee look at the way fixed interest rates are creeping up in the United States and think that if my plan is to fix for a three year period or longer it is possible that rates are as low as they are going to go – especially as banks are competing for business with discounted short-term fixed rates (out to 18 months) and contributions towards grocery costs rather than discounting the longer term fixed rates.
But it costs a bit of money to shift further out along the yield curve, so if I were borrowing now (keeping in mind that I actually paid my mortgage off back in about 1998) I’d largely compensate for the absence of really low long-term fixed rates relative to short rates by having half my debt floating (ready to fix long should a discounted rate appear), and get the other half into a discounted 12 – 18 month rate.
I’d then not travel anywhere for three years, not buy untold new whitewear, not replace the car, limit my initial breeding, and basically get my principal down as quickly as possible.
The pay-off comes strongly in terms of reduced exposure to interest rate rises once the Reserve Bank starts putting the boot in (and they will), and lower lifetime interest costs.
Thanks to Tony Alexander of the BNZ for his Weekly Comment 30/05/13
The latest monthly property value index shows that nationwide residential values increased further in April. Values are up 4.0% above the previous market peak of late 2007, with a 1.3% increase over the past three months and a 7.1% increase over the past year.
Kerry Stewart, QV Operations Manager said “the increase in nationwide values is now being driven by all the main centres, not just Auckland and Canterbury. The value increases in the other main centres is much slower than in Auckland and Canterbury, but the trend is definitely positive. The provincial centres remain more variable.”
“Buyers are showing more optimism and confidence, although are still being careful in their decision making. The exception to this is in parts of Auckland where demand is so high that there is little opportunity to delay making offers.” said Stewart
Values in the Wellington area are showing some growth, although not like the other large cities of Auckland and Christchurch. Values are now 2.0% above this time last year with a 0.8% growth in the last 3 months. Within Wellington, Porirua has seen the biggest increase over the last 3 months at 2.2%.
QV Valuer Kerry Buckeridge said “buyers in the $1-1.5 million bracket as well as first home buyers remain active in the market with attractive, well presented properties attracting multiple offers and selling well. There are quite a few apartments on the market but with insurance increases affecting body corporate fees still, sales aren't as prolific in many buildings.”
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